Sunday, January 14, 2007

Lobster and the Sunk-Cost Fallacy


What does a lobster have to do with the sunk-cost fallacy? And if the two are related at all, what’s the worst that can happen? Let me tell you the true story of what happens when a lobster purchase meets the sunk-cost fallacy, enhanced by loss aversion.

First, the sunk-cost fallacy is applicable to economics, human behavior, business decision-making, warfare, gambling – and evidently buying shellfish.

The sunk-cost fallacy is the phenomenon closely related to loss aversion. For example, a person who purchases a non-refundable movie ticket feels obligated to go to the movie despite not really wanting to, because doing otherwise would be wasting the ticket price; they feel they passed the point of no return and must see the show.

Dan (Remarkable Simone’s father), after having unsuccessfully attempted to catch lobster, found and purchased the largest tail he'd ever seen at a local market. It was the size of a meat loaf and weighed two pounds! It also cost $55.

All you can eat lobster is right up my alley. Dan decides that the 2 lb tail should be sliced, and the medallions sauteed in garlic and butter. So far so good.

I get started late. My plate is beautiful. Plenty of lobster medallions, superb salad, red wine (Shiraz again and YES even with seafood). I pick the most succulent piece of lobster, place it delicately in my eager mouth…. Begin to chew when…. YUCK! It tastes like ammonia! Same with the second attempted bite so I toss all mine in the garbage.

Dan has just paid $55 for the largest lobster tail he’s ever seen. And he’s going to eat it, goddammit, he tells me it tastes great and doesn’t smell like ammonia. He consumes nearly the whole thing.

I decide to do a little sleuthing on the internet to see if there’s anything about lobsters smelling like ammonia. As it turns out, there are about a million pages describing how shellfish decay and contamination results in ammonia smell! I must tell him.

“Dear Dan, I am sorry to inform you that the lobster was rotten, and you may be in for a long night.”

He’s horrified. He’s pissed-off. He’s gotten ripped off. HE ATE IT.

Within a short time food poisoning hits. Dan’s feeling nauseous, then the stomach cramps begin, then frequent visits to the loo, then he’s retching. Dan curls on the couch through the night sick as a dog, too sick to go home or be on his own.

The moral of this story is: NEVER consumer nearly two pounds of rotten lobster simply because you paid $55 for it. It’s not worth it. It’s a sunk cost, just let it go.

No comments: